The Patriots do not know when they are beaten

Where to begin with that Patriots-Broncos game on Sunday night? The 14th career meeting between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning never quite turned into the great quarterbacking duel some fans had hoped for, but there was certainly no shortage of drama – from the Patriots’ three fumbles in 13 plays to open up the game, right through to the Broncos’ muffed punt coverage in overtime that gifted victory to New England.

By all reasonable logic, this game should have been over by half-time, Denver heading into the locker room with a 24-0 lead after converting all three of those early takeaways into points. Only five teams in the last 50 years had successfully recovered from a half-time deficit of 24 points or greater, while 485 others had failed. New England’s task was rendered all the more daunting by the freezing cold and high winds that made it difficult to throw the ball downfield.

But this was not a night for reasonable logic. The Patriots came out swinging after the interval, and suddenly all the breaks that had gone against them in the first half started to fall their way. Running back Montee Ball fumbled for Denver, Manning threw an interception, and the Broncos’ receivers let routine catches slip through their hands. New England scored 31 unanswered points.

There was time yet for another twist. Manning, after struggling all night, finally put together one masterful drive – delivering a series of perfect passes to Demaryius Thomas, culminating in an 11-yard touchdown strike. The game went to overtime. New England won the toss and let Denver have the ball first, choosing instead to play with the wind at their backs.

Both teams, however, slipped into a lull, unable to get anything going. With just over three minutes left in overtime, the game looked destined to end in a tie. But then Wes Welker – back in New England for the first time since his acrimonious offseason departure – waited too long to tell his team-mates to get out of the way of a punt that caught in the wind. The ball struck the leg of Denver’s Tony Carter, and the Patriots recovered it within range for a game-winning field goal.

How are we to categorise such a topsy-turvy game? Was this further evidence of Brady’s psychological superiority over Manning, of his innate ability to win big games? Was it more an indictment of the Broncos, exposing frailties that had previously stayed hidden? Or was this just further proof that Manning deals badly with cold weather?

As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Manning was poor in Foxboro, missing receivers too often and never taking enough shots downfield. But it is also true that he was missing tight end Julius Thomas, a player whose size and athleticism have created so many mismatches this season. Brady, conversely, threw brilliantly, converting 34 of 50 passes for 344 yards and three touchdowns. But his first quarter fumble was also part of why the Patriots found themselves in a hole in the first place.

What we can say is that the Patriots showed a rare resilience, refusing to believe they were beaten, even when the odds were stacked against them.

“It was just [a case of] thinking, ‘If they can score 24 points in the first half, then we can do it in the second half,’”

said safety Devin McCourty afterward.

The fact that they succeeded will only strengthen the conviction of this team, which has now closed to within one game of the Broncos and Chiefs in the race to secure the AFC’s top seed.

Arizona belong in the playoff conversation

There were tears before kickoff in Arizona, as Bruce Arians was reunited with his former colleagues from Indianapolis. This time last year, he was filling in as interim head coach of the Colts, holding down the fort while Chuck Pagano battled leukaemia. Arians would win nine of his 12 games in charge, steering a young Colts team into the postseason, before stepping aside once his friend felt well enough to return to work.

It was enough to land Arians the Associated Press Coach of the Year award for 2012. At this rate, he might be a contender to win it again in 2013. After the pleasantries were over and done with on Sunday, Arians’s Cardinals proceeded to crush Pagano’s Colts 40-11, improving their overall record to 7-4.

Coming into this season, few people had given the Cardinals much hope of emerging from a division that includes the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, as well as a Seattle Seahawks team who had been widely tipped for a Super Bowl run. The St Louis Rams also looked to be ahead of Arizona in the NFC West pecking order, after making considerable strides in 2012 under their new head coach, Jeff Fisher.

Even the Cardinals’ own players were not convinced that they would be able to compete. Following the win over Indianapolis this weekend, offensive tackle Eric Winston recalled Arians’ attempts to build their confidence in preseason.

“Bruce, coming out of training camp, told us, ‘Hey, you guys, we’re a good team’ He saw it before anybody else. Yet, until very recently, I don’t know if guys believed it yet. I think Bruce had to convince us we can win these big games. He told us, ‘You know what? We can beat good teams.’”

The cynics will argue that the Cardinals still have not beaten a whole lot of good teams this season. They are riding a four-game winning streak, but the first three of those came against the Falcons, Texans and Jaguars. And while Indianapolis were 7-3 coming into this match-up, they have been up and down over the last month, also losing 38-8 to the Rams.

Arizona will have further chance to prove themselves next week in Philadelphia, against an Eagles team who could become a direct rival for a Wildcard berth. But the most intriguing game on their regular schedule might just be the last one, at home to San Francisco on 29 December.

The 49ers are also 7-4 following their Monday night win over Washington, and as things stand they would claim the final Wildcard berth in the NFC – eliminating the Cardinals by virtue of a superior head-to-head record. But with the situation so finely poised, there is a real possibility that their match-up in Arizona at the end of next month could become a do-or-die game for both teams.

Few people can have anticipated such a scenario when the season first began. But perhaps Arians was among them.

The AFC Wildcard race is wide open

A week after losing their first game of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs dropped another one – their previously stout defense falling apart during a 41-38 defeat to San Diego at Arrowhead Stadium. Injuries played a significant part, as both of Kansas City’s top pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, left the game hurt, but this was still a surprising scoreline for a team that had previously given up just 13.8 points per outing.

The Chiefs will not have it easy next week, either, as Manning and the Broncos arrive intent on rebounding from that defeat in New England. Could Kansas City really go from a 9-0 start into an 0-3 skid? Perhaps, but even if they do then the good news is that their playoff berth is still more than likely secure. They could conceivably claim a Wildcard berth in the AFC without winning another game all season.

That is because 11 of the conference’s 16 teams are presently below .500. For now, the Chiefs occupy the conference’s fifth seed at 9-2. The sixth seed belongs to the Tennessee Titans, at 5-6.

The race for the final Wildcard berth figures to be a wide open one. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers and New York Jets all share identical records with Tennessee, but even the teams behind them might still consider themselves to be in contention. At 4-7, the Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders, and Cleveland Browns are only one game behind.

Will someone emerge between now and the end of December as a clear front-runner in that group? Perhaps, and the Steelers are looking like a strong candidate after stringing together three consecutive wins. But the Chiefs are certainly not feeling anybody’s breath on the back of their necks just yet.

Fantasy Football thoughts

The return of Brandon Weeden at quarterback bodes badly for Cleveland’s hopes of winning many more games this season. But apparently it will not do too much damage to the Fantasy value of the team’s No1 receiver. Josh Gordon hauled in 14 receptions for 237 yards and one touchdown on Sunday – continuing to produce even after Weeden stepped in to replace the team’s injured starting quarterback, Jason Campbell. Gordon, though, will be owned in almost every league. Here are three effective players you might yet find available on the waiver wire:

1) Nate Burleson returned to Detroit’s line-up for the first time since week three, and immediately made an impact, catching 11 passes for 77 yards and a score. As long as he can avoid any further pizza-related calamities, he has the potential to enjoy some productive weeks as Matthew Stafford’s second wide receiver in Detroit’s pass-happy offense.

2) His value might only be as a one-week fill-in, but if you are short at running back and need a win to get you into the Fantasy playoffs, then Benny Cunningham might be worth considering. The rookie tailback will likely be starting for St Louis on Sunday, after Zac Stacy left the team’s win over Chicago with a reported concussion. Cunningham played well in relief, rushing for 109 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries. That said, his match-up next week, on the road in San Francisco, is less than ideal.

3) Cardinals tight end Rob Housler is probably only worth consideration in deeper leagues, but indications over the last few weeks are that he might be developing into a more consistent target for quarterback Carson Palmer. He has been targeted 19 times in the last three games, converting that into 178 yards and a touchdown. As Arizona’s all-round offensive performance has improved, there are more balls to go around.

Quick outs

• The Dallas Cowboys proved that they are capable of winning a close game, beating the New York Giants 24-21 at MetLife Stadium. But they were still responsible for the most inexcusable play of the weekend, allowing Brandon Myers to get up off the ground and waltz into the end zone after two defenders simply forgot to touch him down.

• John Harbaugh provided us with a neat insight into the working life of an NFL head coach this week, laying out his typical weekly schedule for ESPN. Deadspin also took that information and turned it into a neat infographic, breaking down where his hours are spent each week.

• The NFL’s circle of parity for 2013 is now complete. Kudos to Reddit user Lvl9LightSpell for putting it together.

• And while we’re on the subject of parity … Three weeks ago the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars had no wins between them. Now they have five. Both teams tasted success again this weekend, beating the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans respectively. Their improved performances could have significant implications for next year’s draft. All of a sudden the Texans, and also the Atlanta Falcons – both of whom were billed as Super Bowl contenders before the season began – are now in the running for the first overall pick.

• Missing Tim Tebow? Sports Illustrated’s Tim Lake has put together a tremendous long-form piece on the player here – finding out how he wound up out of work, what he has been doing in the meanwhile, why he has not yet given up hope of an NFL career and frankly a whole lot else besides.