With two weekends of the NFL regular season to go we look at who will – and won’t – make the playoffs.Just two weeks remain in the NFL’s regular season, and yet much is still to be decided. Only four teams have guaranteed their playoff spots, meaning that eight are left up for grabs. Here is a team-by-team look at who needs what among those that are still in contention.
Teams listed in order of current seeding. (x) denotes a team that has already clinched a playoff berth. (y) denotes a team that has won its division.
AFC
Who would make the playoffs if the season finished today?
1) (x) Denver Broncos (11-3)
Remaining games: at Houston, at Oakland
Despite occupying the conference’s top seed, Denver could slip all the way to fifth if they lose one more game. Their AFC West rivals Kansas City boast an identical record, and sit behind the Broncos only by virtue of the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Denver’s last two opponents, Houston and Oakland, are not the most daunting, but both games are on the road. The Broncos can win the AFC West this week if they beat the Texans, and Kansas City lose to the Colts. Denver would secure top seeding throughout the playoffs in that scenario if New England also failed to win.
2) New England Patriots (10-4)
Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo
The Patriots had a chance to move ahead of Denver in week 15, after the Broncos’ Thursday night defeat to San Diego. But New England missed their opportunity, losing on the road to division rivals Miami. As a consequence they still need one more win – or a Dolphins defeat – to be confirmed as AFC East champions.
New England could also seal a first-round bye this week if they win while both Cincinnati and Indianapolis fail to do so. The Patriots would achieve the same result with a tie in Baltimore, plus losses for both the Bengals and Colts.
3) Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)
Remaining games: vs. Minnesota, vs. Baltimore
The Bengals also blew a big chance in week 15, their loss to Pittsburgh costing them the opportunity to leapfrog New England. Instead there is now a good chance that they will go into the final week of the season with not only their division title, but also their playoff spot on the line.
All is not yet lost, however. A Cincinnati victory this weekend would be enough to take the division if Baltimore fail to win a tough game in New England (a tie would also be sufficient if the Ravens lose). Otherwise, the Bengals can secure at least a Wildcard spot under the same terms with a Miami loss or tie.
4) (y) Indianapolis Colts (9-5)
Remaining games: at Kansas City, vs. Jacksonville
Aided by the incompetence of their AFC South rivals, the Colts are the only team in the NFL to sew up its division crown so far. They are technically still in the running for the AFC’s second seed, too, but would need to win out and have both New England and Cincinnati slip up at least once.
5) (x) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)
Remaining games: vs Indianapolis, at San Diego
The good news is that the Chiefs cannot fall any lower than the fifth seed. But the bad news is that, despite boasting the joint-best record in the conference, they are not likely to climb any higher. The only way that Kansas City get to play a home game this season is if Denver lose, or tie, another game.
The Chiefs would need to keep winning themselves, too, and they have two tough match-ups left on their schedule – hosting Indianapolis before going on the road to face a San Diego team that already beat them at Arrowhead.
6) Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
Remaining games: vs New England, at Cincinnati
Four consecutive wins (and five in six weeks) have propelled the Ravens back into the playoff hunt. Are the reigning champs positioning themselves for another run at the Super Bowl? On paper it looks possible, and Baltimore control their own destiny with two weeks left to play. Beat New England and Cincinnati, and they will finish top of the AFC North.
Of course, that is more easily said than done. New England are not in the habit of losing two in a row under Bill Belichick, and will be looking to bounce back after their loss in Miami. But if the Ravens do win this Sunday, then they could potentially secure a wildcard berth one week early – if Miami also lose, and San Diego fail to win.
Who else is still in the hunt?
7) Miami Dolphins (8-6)
Remaining games: at Buffalo, vs New York Jets
Despite not presently occupying a playoff berth, Miami’s fate also rests in their own hands. Win out, and the Dolphins will claim the final wildcard spot regardless of what happens elsewhere – since Baltimore and Cincinnati must play each other in week 17. If the Bengals win that game, then the Ravens cannot finish better than 9-7. If Baltimore prevail, then Cincinnati cannot do better than 10-6, and Miami would win the potential tie-breaker.
The Dolphins could even claim their Wildcard spot this weekend, if both the Bengals and Ravens lose. They also still technically have a shot at the AFC East title, but would require the Patriots to lose both their remaining games.
San Diego Chargers (7-7)
Remaining games: vs Oakland, vs Kansas City
In the last month, the Chargers have beaten both the Broncos and the Chiefs – putting up a combined 68 points along the way. And yet, the postseason remains a distant prospect. To get in, they would need to win out, while Miami and Baltimore each lose both of their remaining games.
9) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Green Bay, vs Cleveland
Look, the Steelers are not going to be involved in this year’s playoffs. They make this list on a technicality, nothing more. But just for argument’s sake, here’s what would need to happen: Steelers win out, Baltimore and Miami lose out, San Diego loses at least once, the New York Jets win out, pigs take to the skies, hell freezes over.
NFC
Who would make the playoffs if the season finished today?
1) (x) Seattle Seahawks (12-2)
Remaining games: vs Arizona, vs St Louis
The NFC’s path to the Super Bowl goes through Seattle. The Seahawks have not technically sewn up homefield advantage just yet, but that is frankly a formality. A victory in either of their remaining two games, both of which will be played at CenturyLink Field, would be sufficient. Failing that, a loss or tie for San Francisco would also do the job. Nobody else can catch up, since Seattle hold head-to-head tie-breakers over both Carolina and New Orleans.
2) New Orleans Saints (10-4)
Remaining games: at Carolina, vs. Tampa Bay
All of a sudden, the Saints are beginning to look precarious. A surprising loss to St Louis on Sunday has left them facing a must-win road game against division rivals Carolina in week 16. They beat the Panthers 31-13 on 8 December, but that was at home – where New Orleans boast a perfect 7-0 record. New Orleans are just 3-4 so far this season outside of the Louisiana Superdome.
They can secure a playoff berth by winning either one of their two remaining games, but would secure a division title, as well as a first-round bye, if they beat the Panthers. Should the Saints lose to Carolina, there is a good chance they could finish the weekend sixth in the conference. Given the aforementioned road record, that is not a place they want to be.
3) Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Chicago, at Dallas
If Dallas beat Washington on Sunday, then Philadelphia’s game against Chicago becomes almost entirely meaningless in the context of the NFC East. The Cowboys would effectively have set themselves up for an all-or-nothing elimination game against the Eagles in week 17 – with the winner taking the division, and the loser missing out on the postseason altogether. Only in the event of a tie would other results come into play.
Should the Cowboys slip up against Washington, however, then the Eagles will have the opportunity to claim the division title a week early. If Dallas lose, then a win or tie would be sufficient for Philadelphia against Chicago. If the Cowboys tie, then the Eagles would need the victory.
4) Chicago Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: at Philadelphia, vs Green Bay
Much like the Eagles, Chicago know that their only hope of getting into the postseason relies on winning their division outright. They could get there this weekend with a victory over Philadelphia, plus losses for Detroit and Green Bay. More likely, their season will be defined by the head-to-head game against the Packers in week 17.
The Bears would lose a tie-breaker to Detroit, having been swept by the Lions this season, but for now have a one-game lead over Jim Schwartz’s team. For that reason, avoiding defeat against Philadelphia is imperative.
5) Carolina Panthers (10-4)
Remaining games: vs. New Orleans, at Atlanta
The Panthers can clinch a playoff spot by beating the Saints on Sunday, but not yet a division title. Carolina would still need to beat Atlanta in week 17 to be certain of finishing top of the NFC South – or hope that New Orleans slipped up against Tampa Bay.
Carolina can also secure their Wildcard spot this week with a tie, if either Arizona or San Francisco are defeated. If both of those teams lose, then the Panthers get into the playoffs regardless.
6) San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Remaining games: vs. Atlanta, at Arizona
It speaks to the competitiveness of the NFC West this season that the 49ers have lost just four games and could still finish third in their division. That is not the most likely outcome, however. A win over Atlanta this weekend, or a loss for Arizona on the road in Seattle, would be enough to secure the 49ers’ Wildcard berth. Failing that, they will just have to beat the Cardinals themselves in week 17.
In theory, the 49ers can still win the division, but in practice it is highly improbable. The 49ers would need to win out and have Seattle lose both of their remaining games.
Who else is still in the hunt?
7) Arizona Cardinals (9-5)
Remaining games: at Seattle, vs. San Francisco
Despite winning six of their last seven games, it seems likely that the Cardinals will still find themselves on the outside looking in come January. Playing in the NFC West has done them no favours, as reflected by a brutal end to their schedule – on the road in Seattle, then back home to face the 49ers.
They can still leapfrog San Francisco, but would require their division rivals to lose at home to Atlanta this weekend. More realistic would be the hope that Carolina are beaten by New Orleans. Arizona can claim a Wildcard spot by winning one more game than the Panthers manage in the next two weeks – since they hold the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)
Remaining games: vs. Pittsburgh, at Chicago
The Packers’ only hope lies with overtaking Chicago in the NFC North. Seeing as they face the Bears in week 17, a victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday will be enough to at least keep them in contention. Green Bay could still stay in touch with a defeat, so long as the Bears also fail to win, but would run the risk of being overtaken by the Lions. Aaron Rodgers cannot come back fast enough.
9) Detroit Lions (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. New York Giants, at Minnesota
It all looked so straightforward for the Lions, who sat top of the NFC North after beating the Bears on 10 November, with the added strength of knowing that both of their main rivals for the division – Green Bay and Chicago – had just lost their starting quarterbacks to injury. Since then, though, Detroit have lost four games out of five. Their fate is no longer in their hands.
To find a way back, the Lions would need both the Packers and Bears to lose at least once before the end of the season. Given that they are playing each other in week 17, that means at least one would have to lose this weekend. And, of course, Detroit would need to win out. A soft finish to their schedule makes that last part, at least, seem plausible.
10) Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: at Washington, vs. Philadelphia
Despite their latest implosion, the Cowboys have not yet thrown away this season. Win their next two games, and they will take the NFC East. A single victory over Philadelphia in week 17 might even be enough, but only if the Eagles lose to Chicago, or if both NFC East teams tie this weekend.